The GOP’s $1.5 Trillion Tax Plan Does Almost Nothing for the 99 Percent

The House’s proposed legislation is full of goodies for the wealthy, but offers virtually no relief to anyone else.

BY BRYCE COVERT November 3, 2017
This piece originally appeared in New Republic

This week, House Republicans finally unveiled their tax cut package after months of stating vague principles, squabbling over details, and even delaying its release by a day. Even though the plan offered more information than Republicans had been willing to cough up previously, many families still likely have very little idea of whether they’ll be helped or hurt by the plan. That is, unless they’re rich.

Even without a full expert markup, it’s clear that low-income families get basically no relief at all in what Republicans propose. The rich, though, can rest assured that their tax bills would shrink if this grab bag were to become law.

Before the legislation was unveiled, Republicans and their critics had been trading volleys about whether their plan would keep the current system’s basic progressivity: levying more taxes on the wealthy, and offering more relief to those further down the income ladder. President Donald Trump promised that his tax plan wouldn’t help the rich “at all,” although Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin admitted that Republicans were finding it hard to not cut taxes for the well-off.

Much of the GOP’s potential defense rested on how much they would expand the Child Tax Credit. The current credit, which is claimed by low- and middle-income parents, is worth up to $1,000 per child. But families who make less than $3,000 a year can’t claim it at all, and those who do earn above that cutoff don’t always get the full amount. Instead, families who make less than $16,330 get just a partial credit. All of this makes the CTC ripe for expansion and reform, an idea with support from people in both parties.

But House Republicans want to increase the value of the credit to $1,600, far less than what their colleagues in the Senate, Marco Rubio and Mike Lee, have called for. Worse, the extra $600 is nonrefundable at first. Families who don’t owe federal income taxes because they make so little can’t get anything out of a nonrefundable credit, since it only counts to lower an existing tax bill. About 35 percent of taxpayers find themselves in this situation, so they’d have to wait until the extra money is gradually made fully refundable to get anything from it. That could be 21 years from now. Meanwhile, families earning less than $3,000 a year would still be shut out.

The plan also changes eligibility for the tax credit by requiring parents to have a Social Security number, not just a taxpayer ID, which would hurt many immigrants. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities predicts that this would make about three million children newly ineligible, 80 percent of whom were born here.

House Republicans offered up a new $300 credit per each parent in a family, as well as for any dependents who aren’t children such as aging relatives. That could be a nice boost, handing those in the middle and the bottom a little more cash. Except that it just vanishes after five years. Thus the plan looks like it could give lower-income Americans a good deal, so long as you only focus on the near term.

The plan also repeals the personal exemption, which currently allows families to deduct $4,050 per person from their overall tax bill, taking away a big benefit. The expanded Child Tax Credit, as well as nearly doubling the standard deduction that 70 percent of Americans use to reduce their tax bills, is meant to help make up for such a painful change.

But those provisions only go so far. As New York University School of Law professor Lily Batchelder pointed out on Twitter, under the Republican plan, two married people with full-time minimum wage jobs raising two children get no additional benefit. Neither does a married couple that’s retired and living off less than $20,000 a year. Passing the tax package would do nothing for these families.

Read the rest in New Republic